Mini-Symposium 21:

Imprecise Probability in Reliability


Generalised methods for uncertainty quantification are receiving increasing interest, due to shortcomings of traditional methods of probability and statistics for modelling severe uncertainty and risk in reliability and engineering. The theory of imprecise probability provides an attractive framework for inference and decision support in reliability. Imprecise probability methods include, but are not restricted to, lower and upper previsions, random sets and p-boxes, together with a range of related methods for statistical inference.

The use of lower and upper probabilities for uncertainty quantification reflects the strength of evidence in the available information and the influence of modelling assumptions. Imprecise probability does not only allow us to quantify uncertainty more accurately, but it also allows us to identify where more information is needed in order to arrive at a well-founded decision. In practical reliability problems, robust inference and decision support are critical, particularly in applications involving new systems with limited testing opportunities.

This mini-symposium will include presentations of recent developments in this topic area, together with discussion about future research topics inspired by practical reliability challenges. We particularly welcome contributions concerning practical applications of imprecise probability in reliability and related fields, as well as contributions of novel theoretical results that aim to help solving practical problems.


Frank Coolen
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, UK.
Scott Ferson
Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, USA.
Michael Oberguggenberger
Department of Engineering Science, University of Innsbruck, Austria.
Matthias Troffaes
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, UK.
Lev Utkin
Department of Control, Automation and System Analysis, Saint-Petersburg State Forest Technical University, Russia.
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ICVRAM2014 Conference timeline:

30th November 2013:
ASCE Full paper submission
15th February 2014:
Deposit and/or early bird registration deadline
1st of May 2014:
Full paper submission (not included in the ASCE proceedings)
1st June 2014:
Scientific programme
13th-16th July 2014:
View photos of the ASCE-ICVRAM-ISUMA 2014