
Monday 
Time 
Track A 
Track B 
Track C 
Track D 
08:30 
Opening Ceremony 

09:00 
Keynote Speaker: Bilal Ayyub 
09:30 
Keynote Speaker: Pol D. Spanos 
10:00 
Refreshments 
10:30 
90 
106 
92 
354 

Asymptotically Independent Markov Sampling: A New MCMC Scheme for Bayesian Inference 
Innovative Ways to Implement Risk Management in Infrastructure Projects 
Harmonic Wavelets based Response Power Spectrum Determination of MDOF Nonlinear 
Seismic Vulnerability Assessment at Urban Scale Based on Different Building Stock Data Sources 

Konstantin M. Zuev and James L. Beck 
Martin Th. van Staveren 
I. A. Kougioumtzoglou, Fan Kong, P. D. Spanos and J. Li Structural Systems 
P. Ricci, C. Del Gaudio, G. M. Verderame, G. Manfredi, M. Pollino and F. Borfecchia 
10:45 
552 
441 
204 
885 

Simulation of Multivariate Nonstationary Ground Motions Based on New Formulation of Cholesky Decomposition 
A Group of Deterioration Curves of Bridges Estimated by Extended EM Algorithm 
Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessment of Chinese RC Frame Structures Using Fragility Curves 
FP7 "Space" project Aphorism "Advanced PRocedures for volcanic and Seismic Monitoring" 

Yanwen Su, Guoqing Huang and Liuliu Peng 
I. Yoshida, Y. Otake and Y. Honjo 
Xiaohui Yu and Dagang Lu 
A. Di Iorio, S. Stramondo, C. Bignami, S. Corradini, L. Merucci 
11:00 
380 
752 
277 
23 

Adaptive Response Surface Method Based Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation 
The Evaluation of RiskFactors of Population Safety in Transport Corridor of Georgian Military Road 
Effectiveness Evaluation of Seismic Protection Devices for Bridges in the PBEE Framework 
Resilience Metrics for MultiHazard Environments 

Somdatta Goswami and Subrata Chakraborty 
G. V. Gavardashvili and I. R. Iremashvili 
Paolo Emidio Sebastiani, Jamie E. Padgett, Francesco Petrini and Franco Bontempi 
Bilal M. Ayyub 
11:15 
445 
98 
307 
49 – CANCELLED 

Weighted Simulation for Failure Probability Function Estimation 
Planning and Management of Port Infrastructure Projects under Uncertainty 
Advances in SimulationBased Quantification/Assessment of Seismic Risk Supported by Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling 
Limitations and Uncertainties in the Long Term Deflection Calculation of Concrete Structures 

Xiukai Yuan and Lin Zeng 
P. Taneja, T. Vellinga and S. R. Sol 
A. A. Taflanidis and C. R. Vetter 
Behnam Vakhshouri and Shami Nejadi 
11:30 
459 
649 
319 
148 

Estimation of Failure Probability by Limit State Sampling 
The State of Art of Risk Management Standards on Tunnels and Underground Works in China 
Sensitivity Analysis of Different Capacity Spectrum Approaches to Assumptions in the Modeling, Capacity and Demand Representations 
A Resilience Engineering Framework: Adapting to Extreme Events 

Ivan Depina, Gudmund Eiksund, Thi Minh Hue Le and Gordon Fenton 
Qunfang Hu and Hongwei Huang 
Tiziana Rossetto, Pierre Gehl, Stylianos Minas, Arash Nassirpour, Joshua Macabuag, Philippe Duffour and John Douglas 
Yumei Wang and Qisong “Kent” Yu 
11:45 
872 
52 
320 
332 

Structural Model Updating of a Steel Truss Structure Utilizing Ambient Vibration Measurement 
A Review of Crash Surrogate Events 
Investigating the Use of RecordtoRecord Variability in Static Capacity Approaches 
Liquefaction Hazard Zonation base+B172d on a Probabilistic Model of Lateral Spread Exceeding a Predefined Threshold 

H. F. Lam, H. Y. Peng and S. K. Au 
Yan Kuang and Xiaobo Qu 
Pierre Gehl, John Douglas, Tiziana Rossetto, Joshua Macabuag, Arash Nassirpour, Stylianos Minas and Philippe Duffour 
Fang Liu, Zhen Li, Peizhen Li and Mingjing Jiang 
12:00 
Lunch 
13:00 
187 
258 
350 
389 

Practical Reliabilitybased Design of Deep Foundations Using Subset Simulation 
Probabilistic Capacity Modeling for SingleLane Roundabout 
Rational Framework for Probability of Collapse in Buildings 
Investigation on the Construction of Flood Insurance Model in China 

Z. Cao and Y. Wang 
Liang Ren, Xiaobo Qu and Erwin Oh 
Tareq Hatahet and Castin Koenke 
Quanhe Ju, Shuguang Liu, Yi Cai and Guihui Zhong 
13:15 
620 
262 
603 
416 

An Improvement of a MetamodelBased Importance Sampling Algorithm for Estimating Small Failure Probabilities 
ParkandRide Network Design in a Bimodal Transport Network to Prompt Public Transport Mode Share 
Local WaveletBased Spectral “Epsilon” Modification of Ground Motions in Support of Incremental Dynamic Analysis 
Lifeline System Interdependencies – Key for Resilience in Practice 

F. Cadini, A. Gioletta and E. Zio 
Xinyuan Chen, Zhiyuan Liu, Shahi Islam and Wei Deng 
A. Giaralis and D. Vamvatsikos 
Alex K. Tang, Jian Li and Leonardo DuenasOsorio 
13:30 
625 
346 
637 
621 

Computation of the Sobol’ Indices Using Importance Sampling 
Tools for an Extended Risk Assessment for Ropax ShipShip Collision 
Including Multiple IMTs in the Development of Fragility Functions for Earthquake Loss Estimation 
Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation in Shanghai 

Pierre Beaurepaire, Matteo Broggi and Edoardo Patelli 
Floris Goerlandt, Jakub Montewka and Pentti Kujala 
L. Sousa, V. Silva, M. Marques, H. Crowley and R. Pinho 
Shuguang Liu, Guihui Zhong, Zhengzheng Zhou and Yi Cai 
13:45 
826 
439 
640 


Application of MCMC in Failure Sampling 
Strategies for Teaching Travel Time Uncertainty Modeling 
Investigation of the Characteristics of the Portuguese Momentframe RC Building Stock 


K. D. Patki and C. D. Eamon 
Xiaobo Qu and Shuaian Wang 
Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Humberto Varum, Rui Pinho and Mário Marques 

14:00 
469 
466 
678 


Subset Simulation for Reliability Assessment of Multiple Stochastic Responses 
The Equity Issue for CordonBased Congestion Pricing with Distance Toll 
Influence of Record Selection Procedures on Seismic Loss Estimations 


H. S. Li, Y. Z. Ma and Z. Cao 
Xin Sun, Zhiyuan Liu and Shuyan Chen 
Mário Marques, Luís Macedo, Miguel Araújo, Luís Martins, José Miguel Castro, Luís Sousa, Vítor Silva and Raimundo Delgado 

14:15 
581 
490 
732 


MCMCbased Updating of an Epidemiological Temporal Aftershock Forecasting Model 
Risk Assessment of Liner Shipping from a Business Environment Perspective 
ReliabilityBased Design of Fluid Viscous Damper for Seismic Protection of Building Frames 


F. Jalayer and H. Ebrahimian 
N. H. M. Salleh, R. Riahi, Z. Yang and J. Wang 
E. Tubaldi, A. Dall Asta, M. Broggi, E. Patelli and M. De Angelis 

14:30 
Refreshments 
14:45 
36 
104 
871 
257 

Developing Resilience to Natural Hazards  A Challenge for Community as a System  
Impact of Functional Models in a Decision Context of Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability Reduction 
Influence of the Axial Load Ratio on the Fragility Functions for RC Walls 
Development of RealTime Tools for Hurricane Risk Assessment 

Vilas Mujumdar 
Jonas Johansson and Henrik Hassel 
S. Marzban and A. Azarbakht 
Alexandros A. Taflanidis, Gaofeng Jia, Norberto C. NadalCaraballo, Andrew B. Kennedy, Jeffrey A. Melby and Jane M. Smith 
15:00 
423 
341 
35 
306 

Habitat Flexibility And Synergy Mitigate Multiple Risks And Uncertainties 
Spatial Risk Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructures Subjected to Extreme Hazards 
Uncertainty Quantification of the Squeal Instability in Real Brake Systems 
A Plan for Characterizing Uncertainties in Extreme Environmental Loads with Climate Change Considerations: Wind Speed and Wave Height as Case Studies 

L. Gene Zellmer 
R. Pant, J. W. Hall, S. Barr and D. Alderson 
A. Nobari, H. Ouyang and P. Bannister 
Franklin T. Lombardo and Bilal Ayyub 
15:15 
498 
128 
110 
317 

Vulnerability and Resilience of Networked Infrastructures 
Bayesian Network Approach for Risk Assessment of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Pond 
Double Random Vibration Analysis for Coupled VehicleTrack Systems with Parameter Uncertainties 
A Methodology for Evaluation and Mapping of Flood Risk. Case Study of Oued Mekerra in the West of Algeria 

J. Agarwal, M. Liu and G. Galvan 
Silvia Tolo, Edoardo Patelli and Michael Beer 
Y. Zhao, P. Xiang and J. H. Lin 
A. Yahiaoui, B. Touaibia and E. Ferrari 
15:30 
536 
184 
161 
322 

A National Model for Strategic Planning of Infrastructure Systems 
Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience Analysis of Electric and Transport Network Failure in Cases of Extreme Winter Storms 
A Statistical Approach to Dynamic Response of Pile Groups in Foundations for Vibratory Machinery 
An Hourly and MultiHourly Extreme Precipitation Climatology for the UK and LongTerm Changes in Extremes 

J. W. Hall, A. Otto, M. Tran, S. Barr and D. Alderson 
Riitta Molarius, Pekka Tuomaala, Kalevi Piira, Minna Räikkönen, Christoph Aubrecht, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Karoliina PilliSihvola and Kalev Rannat 
Konstantin Ashkinadze and Li Fang 
S. Blenkinsop and H. J. Fowler 
15:45 
750 
349 
179 
330 

Using Network Theory to Explore the Vulnerability of Subway System 
Bayesian Kernel Methods for Critical Infrastructure Resilience Modeling 
Stochastic Model Updating of the DLR AIRMOD Structure 
When to Issue a Flood Warning: Towards a Risk Based Approach Based on Real Time Probabilistic Forecasts 

Yongliang Deng, Qiming Li, Ying Lu, Liangliang Song and Yusi Cheng 
H. Baroud and Kash Barker 
Y. Govers, H. Haddad Khodaparast, M. Link and J. E. Mottershead 
Paul J. Smith and Keith J. Beven 
16:00 
102 
314 
213 
335 

Uncertainty and Risk Inclusions in Water Distribution Systems Management: Review and Challenges 
Vulnerability of Transmission Grids with Variable Generation and Consumption: a Complex Network Systems Perspective 
Forced Vibration and Energy Flow Analysis of Plate Assemblies in Symplectic Space 
Probabilistic Prediction of Landslides Induced by Rainfall 

Avi Ostfeld 
G. Sansavini and E. Zio 
Y. B. Ma and Y. H. Zhang 
M. Rossi, A. C. Mondini, S. Luciani, D. Kirschbaum, D. Valigi and F. Guzzetti 
16:15 
Refreshments 
16:30 
530 
284 
289 
413 

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Multidisciplinary Studies of Vane Clusters 
Characterizing the Vulnerability of Future Configurations of Great Britain’s Electricity Network Infrastructure to Climaterelated Hazards 
Dynamic Load Estimation of Launch Vehicles Accounting for Uncertainties of Modeling 
A Statistical Model for Flood Depth Estimation in Southeast Europe 

I. Arsenyev, F. Duddeck and A. FischersworringBunk 
Scott Thacker, Raghav Pant and Jim W. Hall 
Y. M. Mao and H. Ouyang and J. F. Lin 
Carmine Galasso and Sharika U. S. Senarath 
16:45 
345 
281 
510 
511 

A Bayesian Multilevel Approach to Optimally Estimate Material Properties 
The Value of New CrossRadial Links for Public Transport Network Robustness 
Vibration Measurement of Occupational Exposed Workers, Experimental Quantification of the Individual Response Parameters for the Estimation of Uncertainty in the Vertical Direction 
The Assessment of Mudflow Peak Discharge Through a Monte Carlo Simulation Method 

Joseph B. Nagel and Bruno Sudret 
Erik Jenelius and Oded Cats 
Andreas Kyprianou and Athanasios Vazouras 
F. De Paola, R. De Risi, G. Di Crescenzo, M. Giugni, F. Jalayer, A. Santo and G. Speranza 
17:00 
405 
753 
639 
531 

Model Updating by Uncertain Parameter Inference 
Analysis of Road Vulnerability for Population Evacuation Using Complex Network 
Development of a Fragility Model for Momentframe RC buildings in Portugal 
A SemiProbabilistic GisBased Method for MesoScale Flood Hazard Zonation 

H. M. Gomes, M. Broggi, E. Patelli and J. E. Mottershead 
Nan Zhang, Hong Huang, Boni Su and Jinlong Zhao 
Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Humberto Varum, Rui Pinho and Luis Sousa 
R. De Risi, F. Jalayer, F. De Paola and G. Manfredi 
17:15 
488 
228 
551 
832 

Observability and Identifiability Methods for Structural Dynamic Systems 
Simulating Attack Plans Against ICT Infrastructures 
Application of Wavelet and Spectral Representation Method in Nonstationary Process Simulation 
Statistical Modeling of Synthetic Climates for Applications on Construction Materials 

M. N. Chatzis, E. N. Chatzi and A. W. Smyth 
Fabrizio Baiardi, Fabio Corò, Federico Tonelli, Luca Guidi and Daniele Sgandurra 
Guoqing Huang, Liuliu Peng and Yanwen Su 
D. Breysse, E. Rodney, A. Marache, M. Chaplain 
17:30 
491 
404 

452 

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for a Coupled Secondary Air System ThermoMechanical Model of a Jet Engine Low Pressure Turbine Rotor 
Evaluating the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Assessing Interdependencies and Economic Impact: The Role of Inventories 

Probabilistic Characterization of Flood Hazard Using Bivariate Analysis Based on Copulas 

Giulia Antinori, Fabian Duddeck and Andreas FischersworringBunk 
Luca Galbusera, Ivano Azzini, Olaf Jonkeren, Stavros Ntalampiras and Georgios Giannopoulos 

A. Candela and G. T. Aronica 
17:45 
343 
430 

588 

Uncertainty Quantification for State Estimation in Nonlinear Structural Systems 
Too Big to Fail? The Spatial Vulnerability of the Chinese Infrastructure System to Flooding Risks 

Development of a Framework to Model Flood Loss Uncertainty 

K. Erazo and E. M. Hernandez 
Xi Hu, Jim Hall and Scott Thacker 

N. Peiris, D. A. Gatey and M. Hill 